My Case for why David Ortiz should Win the American League MVP Award
Alex Rodriguez is neither the most valuable player on own his team (Mariano Rivera) nor is he the team's most-feared hitter (Gary Sheffield). Would you walk Alex Rodriguez to get to Gary Sheffield? Hell no.
But the Yankees walked David Ortiz to get to Manny Ramirez (third in the majors in RBI at season's end) not once but twice this past weekend. Which makes sense, since 20 of Ortiz's 47 home runs on the season have either tied the game or put the Red Sox ahead. In fact, pitchers have a good reason to fear Ortiz more in pressure situations than they would fear Rodriguez, as illustrated by these splits:
David Ortiz
Overall: .300 avg., 1.001 OPS
Runners in Scoring Position w/ 2 outs: .357 avg., 1.214 OPS
Close and late: .346 avg., 1.293 OPS
Alex Rodriguez
Overall: .321 avg., 1.031 OPS
Runners in Scoring Position w/ 2 outs: .302 avg., .941 OPS
Close and late: .293 avg., .938 OPS
What do these numbers all mean?
They mean this: When the pressure is on, and his team needs him the most, David Ortiz gets better. And in those same situations, Alex Rodriguez gets worse.
That's not to say that a Rodriguez's .293 avg. and .938 OPS are bad. Quite the contrary, most All-Stars don't hit at that kind of a level in any situation. But the plain fact can't be denied that Ortiz's OPS rises almost 300 points when the pressure is on, while Rodriguez's OPS falls almost 100 points in the same situations.
Now, who do you think is more valuable?
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the stats used above, a summary:
Batting Average (avg.) - hits divided by total at-bats (if you walk or are hit by a pitch, a.k.a. HBP, it does not count as an "official" at-bat for the purposes of computing average, nor does it count as a hit)
On-base percentage (OBP) - similar to batting average except that it factors in walks and HBP's. It's computed as (hits + walks + HBP's) divided by total at-bats.
Total bases - Easier to give examples than to define. A single is one total base. A double is two total bases. A triple is three total bases. A home-run is four total bases. So if you hit two singles and a home run in a game, you will have amassed six total bases.
Slugging percentage (SLG) - Total bases divided by at-bats. It's sort of like batting average, but takes into account how hard you hit the ball when you do hit it. So if you hit a home run in every single at-bat, you would have a slugging percentage of 4.000. If you hit a home run every four at-bats, and grounded out the other three, you'd have a slugging percentage of 1.000. If you hit a single in every single at-bat, you would also have a slugging percentage of 1.000. Got it?
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) - It is what it says. On-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Basically, OPS is a good measure of how well a hitter performs overall.
Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) - Runners on second and/or third base. Called "scoring position" because an average runner is likely able to score from second or third on a hit.
"Close and late" - In the 7th inning or later, with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied, or with the potential tying run at least on deck.
But the Yankees walked David Ortiz to get to Manny Ramirez (third in the majors in RBI at season's end) not once but twice this past weekend. Which makes sense, since 20 of Ortiz's 47 home runs on the season have either tied the game or put the Red Sox ahead. In fact, pitchers have a good reason to fear Ortiz more in pressure situations than they would fear Rodriguez, as illustrated by these splits:
David Ortiz
Overall: .300 avg., 1.001 OPS
Runners in Scoring Position w/ 2 outs: .357 avg., 1.214 OPS
Close and late: .346 avg., 1.293 OPS
Alex Rodriguez
Overall: .321 avg., 1.031 OPS
Runners in Scoring Position w/ 2 outs: .302 avg., .941 OPS
Close and late: .293 avg., .938 OPS
What do these numbers all mean?
They mean this: When the pressure is on, and his team needs him the most, David Ortiz gets better. And in those same situations, Alex Rodriguez gets worse.
That's not to say that a Rodriguez's .293 avg. and .938 OPS are bad. Quite the contrary, most All-Stars don't hit at that kind of a level in any situation. But the plain fact can't be denied that Ortiz's OPS rises almost 300 points when the pressure is on, while Rodriguez's OPS falls almost 100 points in the same situations.
Now, who do you think is more valuable?
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the stats used above, a summary:
Batting Average (avg.) - hits divided by total at-bats (if you walk or are hit by a pitch, a.k.a. HBP, it does not count as an "official" at-bat for the purposes of computing average, nor does it count as a hit)
On-base percentage (OBP) - similar to batting average except that it factors in walks and HBP's. It's computed as (hits + walks + HBP's) divided by total at-bats.
Total bases - Easier to give examples than to define. A single is one total base. A double is two total bases. A triple is three total bases. A home-run is four total bases. So if you hit two singles and a home run in a game, you will have amassed six total bases.
Slugging percentage (SLG) - Total bases divided by at-bats. It's sort of like batting average, but takes into account how hard you hit the ball when you do hit it. So if you hit a home run in every single at-bat, you would have a slugging percentage of 4.000. If you hit a home run every four at-bats, and grounded out the other three, you'd have a slugging percentage of 1.000. If you hit a single in every single at-bat, you would also have a slugging percentage of 1.000. Got it?
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) - It is what it says. On-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Basically, OPS is a good measure of how well a hitter performs overall.
Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) - Runners on second and/or third base. Called "scoring position" because an average runner is likely able to score from second or third on a hit.
"Close and late" - In the 7th inning or later, with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied, or with the potential tying run at least on deck.
posted by mike at 9:35 PM
3 Comments:
Ah, comment spam. Gotta love the second one. It has a natural flow to it, don't you think? "Awesome job. Now, about that car insurance..."
Hey, at least someone commented. And say what you want about their respective businesses, at least Greg Brown and the Car Insurance Guy enjoyed my blog.
Where did you get this stats? I'm looking to compare A. Pujoles with Ortiz in the close and late category. I'd like to see who is the best in the clutch over the last 3 years...Any ideas? Thanks.
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